Arlington’s 2026 Property Assessments: Are They Close to Market Value?

Arlington’s 2026 assessments are, on average, a reasonable reflection of where the market stood at the start of the year: the residential base rose 3.2% while regional sale prices rose a bit under 3% in 2025. But averages hide a lot. An individual home’s assessment can sit well above or below its true market value, so compare yours against recent sales of truly similar homes before deciding whether to appeal, or before using it to judge a list price.

The 2026 numbers at a glance

The county published its figures on January 16, 2026, with notices mailed starting January 20. Here are the key changes from the county’s announcement:

Category	2026 change	Notes
Total assessed value (all property)	+1.1%	New construction contributed 0.2 percentage points
Residential (overall)	+3.2%	78% of residential owners saw an increase
Average home assessment	$854,900 to $882,900	Single-family, townhouse and condo combined
Commercial (overall)	-1.5%	Driven mainly by the office decline
Office buildings	-19%	Largest decline among property types
Apartments	+6.2%
General commercial	+3.7%
Hotels	-3.8%

The county also reported that residential property now makes up about 57% of the real estate tax base and commercial about 43%, and that real estate taxes provide almost 60% of county revenue. When office values fall, more of the burden shifts to homeowners, which is why the coming budget discussion matters to every owner.

How close are assessments to market value?

Virginia requires real estate to be assessed at fair market value. In practice, Arlington’s assessors value every residential parcel in the county at once using sales data, property characteristics and statistical models, then set values as of January 1. That means:

• Assessments look backward. The 2026 values reflect sales through 2025. If prices move in the first half of 2026, assessments won’t catch up until next January.
• Averages are close; individual homes vary. A renovation the county doesn’t know about, a busy-street location, or an unusual lot can push a home’s true value well away from its assessment in either direction.
• Property types move differently. Detached homes, townhouses and condos don’t always rise or fall together, so the 3.2% residential figure may not match your segment.

For market context, NVAR reported that the median sold price across its region (which includes Arlington, Fairfax County, Alexandria, Falls Church and Fairfax City) was $750,000 for 2025, up 2.78% from 2024, based on Bright MLS data as of January 9, 2026 (NVAR year-end report). The same report showed active listings in December up 31.7% from a year earlier. A residential assessment gain of about 3% is in the same neighborhood as that regional price growth, but more inventory heading into 2026 is a reminder that the January 1 snapshot is not a forecast. For more Arlington-specific detail, see my Arlington housing market 2025 review.

What it could mean for your tax bill

Arlington’s combined residential rate has been $1.033 per $100 of assessed value, as reported by ARLnow. The County Manager’s proposed FY 2027 budget is due later in February, and the county has said tax and fee increases are among the options. Until the Board advertises and adopts a rate this spring, any bill estimate is provisional.

A worked example

Illustrative math only, assuming the rate stayed at $1.033 per $100 (it may not):

Scenario	Assessment	Annual tax at $1.033
Average home, 2025	$854,900	About $8,831
Average home, 2026	$882,900	About $9,120
Difference	+$28,000	About +$289 per year

Each one-cent change in the rate would move the 2026 bill on the average home by about $88 a year. If your own assessment rose much more than 3.2%, or if you know your home would sell for noticeably less than its assessment, it is worth a closer look.

How to check your own assessment

1. Look up your record on the county’s real estate assessment site and confirm the basics: square footage, bedrooms, baths, lot size, finished basement and year built. Errors here are the easiest fix.
2. Find three to six comparable sales from 2025, close by, similar in size, age and condition. Note how their sale prices compare with their own 2026 assessments.
3. Adjust honestly. A renovated kitchen in the comp and a dated one in your house is a real difference. So is a busier street.
4. Talk to an appraiser at the county before filing. The office takes calls and emails and can explain how your value was reached.
5. File by the deadline if you still disagree. Department Review requests are due March 1 (moving to March 2 this year), and Board of Equalization appeals are due April 15. Check the county’s appeals process page for current instructions.

Keep in mind that a review can lower, confirm or raise an assessment, and an appraiser may ask to inspect the home.

Common mistakes

• Appealing because taxes went up rather than because the value is wrong. Appeals address value, not the tax rate.
• Using active listings or online estimates instead of closed sales.
• Comparing to sales from a different property type or a different part of the county.
• Missing the March deadline and assuming you can still use the first-level review.
• Treating the assessment as a list price or offer price. My post on whether to offer the tax-assessed value explains why that is risky.

For a personal estimate, try the home value tool. For tax questions specific to you, a CPA is the right resource.

Frequently asked questions

When did Arlington release 2026 property assessments?

The county posted 2026 assessments on January 16, 2026, and began mailing notices on January 20, 2026. Values reflect market value as of January 1, 2026.

How much did Arlington home assessments go up in 2026?

Residential assessments rose 3.2% overall, and the average home assessment increased from $854,900 to $882,900, according to Arlington County. About 78% of residential owners saw an increase.

What is the deadline to appeal an Arlington assessment in 2026?

The Department Review deadline is March 1, moved to the next business day when it falls on a weekend, which makes it March 2, 2026. Board of Equalization appeals are due April 15. Confirm details on the county’s appeals page.

Can my assessment go up if I appeal?

Yes. Arlington’s review can decrease, confirm or increase the assessment, so base your appeal on solid comparable sales and accurate property data.

Will my Arlington tax rate change for 2026?

It hasn’t been decided yet. The County Board sets the rate this spring after the FY 2027 budget process, so watch for the advertised rate and public hearings.