Northern Virginia Housing Market: First Quarter 2026 Report

Northern Virginia’s housing market opened 2026 with buyers returning in larger numbers than last spring, prices essentially flat and inventory still tight. In March, closed sales in the NVAR region rose 11.2% year over year, the median price edged up 0.6% to $760,000, and active listings slipped 2.1%. Homes are taking longer to go under contract than a year ago, so buyers have a bit more time, but well-priced homes are still selling.

March 2026 by the numbers

The Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS (NVAR) released its March 2026 market statistics on April 16. NVAR’s footprint covers Fairfax and Arlington counties and the cities and towns within and around them.

Metric (NVAR region)	March 2026	Change from March 2025
Closed sales	1,336	Up 11.2%
Sold dollar volume	About $1.19 billion	Up 10.2%
Median sold price	$760,000	Up 0.6%
New pending sales	1,783	Up 5.2%
Active listings	1,938	Down 2.1%
Months of supply	1.39	Down 4.4%
Average days on market	25	Up 38.9%

That combination is unusual. Sales up, inventory down and days on market up at the same time suggests buyers are active but deliberate: they are shopping longer and comparing, then committing. Last spring, inventory was surging as federal workforce changes unsettled the market. This spring, it is not.

Fairfax County: more sales, flat prices

Bright MLS and ShowingTime data reported by FFXnow on April 14 gives the first-quarter picture for Fairfax County. These figures are preliminary.

Fairfax County, Q1 2026	Value	Change from Q1 2025
Closed sales	2,192	Up 5.2%
Average sale price	$871,279	Up 0.3%
Median sale price	$725,000	Down 1.4%
Average price per sq. ft.	$377	Down 1.3%
Average days from listing to contract	28	Up from 22

In March alone, Fairfax County sales rose 7.7% to 900, and the median climbed 1.7% to $768,000, so the quarter ended stronger than it started. If you own in Fairfax County, my post on 2026 Fairfax County assessments explains how this year’s values were set.

Loudoun County: fewer listings, slightly fewer sales

Loudoun’s picture is a little different. FFXnow’s report put March closed sales at 383, down 4.5% from March 2025. Listing data from Realtor.com, published through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, showed 525 active listings in Loudoun in March 2026 versus 584 a year earlier, about 10% fewer, and a median list price of $849,900, down about 1%.

In plain terms, Loudoun sales are being held back more by supply than by demand. When fewer homes are listed, fewer can sell. My Loudoun 2025 review covers how the county finished last year.

For Loudoun buyers, that means patience and preparation matter more than speed alone. Get fully preapproved, decide in advance which features you will compromise on, and watch for homes that come back on the market after a contract falls through. Those second chances are more common than people think when buyers are being careful about inspections and appraisals.

Rates and the bigger picture

• Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed average at 6.30% for the week of April 16, 2026, down from 6.37% the week before and 6.83% a year earlier.
• The Fed: The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% at its March 18 meeting, citing somewhat elevated inflation and uncertainty tied to events in the Middle East.
• Regional comparison: Bright MLS data for the wider Washington metro showed March sales up 5.2% and a median price of $635,000, up 1.6%, so Northern Virginia’s core is outpacing the region on sales.
• Balance of supply: Even with prices roughly flat, 1.39 months of supply remains far below the 4 to 6 months usually considered balanced, which is why well-priced homes still go quickly.

What this looks like in practice: a worked example

Here is an illustrative scenario, not a real client. A buyer is shopping for a home around $750,000 with 10% down. Compare the principal and interest payment at last spring’s rate and this spring’s rate.

Scenario (illustrative)	Rate near 6.83% (April 2025)	Rate near 6.30% (April 2026)
Loan amount	$675,000	$675,000
Principal and interest per month	About $4,414	About $4,178
Monthly difference	Baseline	About $236 less
Annual difference	Baseline	About $2,830 less

That savings can be the difference between qualifying and not, or between one neighborhood and another. Run your own numbers in the mortgage calculator and have your lender quote taxes, insurance and any HOA dues on top.

What it means for you this spring

Buyers

Expect competition on the best-priced homes, especially detached homes in close-in Fairfax County. On listings that have been active for two to three weeks, there is often room to negotiate on price, closing costs or repairs.

Sellers

Low inventory is your friend, but buyers are more deliberate than in 2021 or 2022. Present the home well, price to recent sales, and be ready for inspection requests.

Common mistakes I am seeing this spring

• Sellers assuming tight supply means any price will work. Days on market are up for a reason.
• Buyers writing their first offer as if it were 2022, waiving protections they do not need to waive.
• Comparing Loudoun and Fairfax County as if they were one market.
• Waiting for rates to fall further without a plan for what happens if they rise instead.
• Using last year’s list prices instead of this quarter’s closed sales to set expectations.

Frequently asked questions

Are home prices going up in Northern Virginia in 2026?

Only slightly so far. NVAR’s March 2026 median sold price was $760,000, up 0.6% from March 2025, and Fairfax County’s first-quarter median was down 1.4%.

Is it a seller’s market in Northern Virginia in spring 2026?

Yes, by supply measures. NVAR reported 1.39 months of supply in March 2026, well below the 4 to 6 months typical of a balanced market, though homes are taking longer to sell than last year.

What are mortgage rates in April 2026?

Freddie Mac’s April 16, 2026 survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.30%, down from 6.83% a year earlier. Your rate will depend on credit, down payment and loan type.

How is the Loudoun County housing market doing in 2026?

March 2026 sales in Loudoun dipped about 4.5% from a year earlier, largely because fewer homes were listed. Realtor.com data showed active listings about 10% below March 2025.